The hottest iron ore fell, and steel stocks welcom

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Iron ore falling price steel stocks welcome the "little spring" trend

iron ore falling price steel stocks welcome the "little spring" trend

China's fair competition market environment engineering machinery information

Guide: on October 18, in the case of negative market shocks and poor performance of many sectors, the steel sector suddenly rose, and the overall increase was higher. Among them, Baotou Steel (600010) (600010), Chongqing Iron and steel (601005) (601005), Daye Special Steel (00070 woodworking hammer 8) (000708) rose by the limit. Some analysts said that this

on October 18, under the circumstances of negative market shock and poor performance of many sectors, the steel sector suddenly rose, and the overall increase was higher. Among them, Baotou Steel (600010) (600010), Chongqing Iron and steel (601005) (601005), Daye Special Steel (000708) (000708) rose by the limit. Some analysts said that the rise of the steel sector was due to multiple reasons, among which the decline in the price of iron ore was the most fundamental reason for Bayer materials technology (China) Co., Ltd. as the main supporting unit; The trend of steel stocks in the future may continue to rebound moderately; The opportunity lies in being able to usher in a profit inflection point, with a high margin of safety, more ore and coal resources advantages, and is expected to obtain a new company after the country compresses overcapacity and industry mergers and acquisitions

reason: the direct reason for the rise of iron and steel stocks is that the actual settlement price of iron ore, the main raw material of iron and steel products, has fallen behind the changes in economic development momentum and structural adjustment, thereby increasing the profit space of iron and steel products

"although the current iron ore quotation is still high, most domestic traders are bluffing. In fact, the iron ore price actually settled by us now is lower than that in the past." A secretary of a listed iron and steel company who did not want to be named said that at present, more than 70 million tons of ore in Hong Kong have not found a steel plant to take over, making hundreds of domestic iron ore traders worried about whether they can ship smoothly. In addition, after entering the fourth quarter, banks began the annual year-end loan collection work, and these traders who owed bank loans had to reduce prices and return the loan

"the indirect reason for the rise of steel stocks is that Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton, Australia's two major iron ore producers, canceled the plan to establish the world's largest iron ore joint venture." Chu Xueliang, an analyst in the steel industry of CIC securities, believes that Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton almost completely control the pricing power of iron ore, which puts a heavy cost pressure on China's steel enterprises. Therefore, not only is the EU worried that after the establishment of the joint venture, the "two Tuos" will jointly control the global iron ore price, but also China has said that the merger of the two Tuos will face the review of China's domestic anti-monopoly law. Under the pressure of national regulators in Asia and Europe, the original dream of "two expansions" to monopolize global iron ore was finally dashed

Lan Jie, a Securities researcher, believes that the current rise in the price of domestic steel, especially construction steel, is also one of the reasons supporting the rise of steel stocks. For example, the average price of coil yuan in wire rod increased by 50 yuan/ton, with an increase of 4.60%; The average price of deformed steel bar in profile increased by 20 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.62%; The average price of medium and thick plates among the plates increased by 30 yuan/ton; The average price of cold rolled sheet and coil increased by 20 yuan/ton

the current valuation advantage of steel stocks has also driven its rise. At present, the average p/E ratio of the steel sector is about 18.5 times, which is higher than that of finance, real estate and mining, but it is still in the low-level region; The average price to book ratio is about 1.5 times, which is lower than the financial industry. This valuation level is basically close to the lowest level in recent years, and has high security

trend: the moderate rebound may continue

"the current market situation of iron ore is very tangled. On the one hand, the actual transaction performance of iron ore is flat, and the market wait-and-see sentiment is strong. The iron ore ballast inventory in China's major ports has exceeded 70million tons, which is enough for Baosteel to use for two years; on the other hand, mines and traders have not stopped the pace of raising prices because of the wait-and-see market." Chuxueliang therefore believes that it is difficult to grasp the future trend, and the key depends on the results of the game between the two sides

then, what will happen to the iron ore price in the future? Chu Xueliang believes that with the continuous depreciation of the dollar, global bulk products have begun to rise, and iron ore is no exception. At present, the three major ore Companies in the world set quarterly prices based on the average of the prices in the first three months. The Singapore Platts index is specifically referred to as the "China spot market price index", which is determined by the three-month average CIF price of 65 grade iron ore in Qingdao port. Under this system, after entering October, the three mining companies began to take the initiative to reduce the price of the next three months by about 10% according to the iron ore price index of the previous quarter

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